The Aurora is LATE, Dammit

Well, I stayed up almost all night (until 5 AM PDT), because the Aurora was predicted to start at around 0230 PDT, “plus or minus seven hours.” The needle never moved off 0.33 Kp all night – what a bummer.

Predictably, I just got a tweet ten minutes ago:
“in 12 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 6.67 — at ‘STORM’ LEVEL! (It’s On!!)”

Thanks guys. It’s daylight now, and we also have a very heavy cloud cover.  🙁

My cell phone receives the notices from the Geophysical Institute, which is usually an annoyance, because there is a lot of activity during the day, when we cannot see it.  A look at this map shows that we need approximately 7 Kp to be assured of something happening that we can see in Seattle and Buffalo, so notices that fall below 5 Kp are pretty useless to me.

Apparently, it should be peaking today and trailing off over the next 48 hours or so. From the Geophysical Institute:

“Forecaster Comments: A significant event located on the Sun facing Earth took place on July 12. The effects of this event will begin to reach Earth early on the 14th of July GMT.

Observers in North America should watch for aurora on the nights of the 14th and 15th local time. Depending on the configuration of the disturbance, auroras may be visible as far south as the middle tier of states. Activity may remain high also on the 16th. Auroras should be visible Southern New Zealand, Tasmania, and of course, Antarctica.”

So, if we are going to see anything, it will be after sunset tonight.  Hope springs eternal, so I’ll be ready again tonight, hoping for enough clearing to see whatever happens!